At halftime, the Eagles have a 97% chance beat the Vikings.
Monday's game at Indiana is important for Maryland's NCAA tournament chances. The Terrapins will have a 79% chance to reach the tournament with a win and a 57% chance with a loss.
Blake Bortles had a first-half raw QBR of 85.2. Ended the game with a 64.5 (and 64.1 with opponent adjustment).
FPI has the Eagles as narrow favorites in the NFC Championship Game. The winner meets the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Belichick's latest fourth-down decision (on fourth-and-2 at the Jaguars' 46-yard line) was also his most costly. Dropped New England's chance to win by 3%.
Again, our WP model thought Belichick was a little conservative there. The decision to punt on fourth-and-4 on the Jaguars' 47-yard line in the third quarter lowered the Patriots' chance to win by 1.8%.
Here's our latest BPI top 30. Biggest increase in rating over last week was Ohio State (+1.8). Biggest rating decrease by Texas Tech (-1.2). Villanova, Purdue and Virginia all increased their respective rating by at least one point.
At halftime, the Jaguars have a 54% chance to win.
Following that Patriots punt, our live win probability model makes this a 50/50 game.
This time our model thinks Belichick was too conservative. Punting, instead of going for it, on fourth-and-1 on their own 34-yard line lowered the Patriots' chance to win by 1.5%.
Our win probability model agreed with Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 on the opening drive. Attempting a field goal would have lowered the Patriots' chance to win by 1.1%. Breakeven percentage to justify going for it was 55.4% and league average in that situation is 65.3%. It's probably safe to assume the Patriots are better than league average.
Ohio State has flown all the way up to No. 14 in BPI. The Buckeyes have four relatively easy games in a row on their slate before running into BPI's No. 2 team, Purdue.
On Tuesday morning, Kansas State had a 26% chance to reach the NCAA tournament, per BPI. Now, following wins over Oklahoma and TCU, that number has risen to 57%.
By beating Gonzaga last night, Saint Mary's improved its projected NCAA tournament seed from 8.9 to 7.8, per BPI. The Gaels are also more likely (27%) than any D-I team to win all of their remaining regular season games.
How much did Alabama's win over Auburn help it's résumé? Before the game the Tide were 59th in Strength of Record (SOR) and BPI gave them 41 percent chance to make the NCAA tournament. After the win they are 47th in SOR and have a 57 percent chance to go dancing.
After another dominating win, BPI now views Purdue as the best team going forward and the favorite to win the NCAA tournament at 21 percent. Villanova, Virginia, Duke, and Michigan State round out BPI's current top five.
After losing to Kansas last night, West Virginia's chances of earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament dropped to below 1%, per BPI. Not going to happen.
How tonight's Kansas-West Virginia's game will affect each team's chances of earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, per BPI... Kansas w/ win: 21% Kansas w/loss: 9% West Virginia w/ win: 5% West Virginia w/ loss:
Purdue has almost caught Villanova in BPI's latest ratings and rankings. The model, which predicts team strength going forward, is not buying teams like Oklahoma, Arizona State and Kentucky the way the AP voters are.
Four remain. Here are their respective chances of winning it all.
The quarterback with the best Total QBR in the divisional round was...Blake Bortles. 90.8.
The Vikings had a 2.6% chance to win immediately prior to the final play.
USC's chance to make the NCAA tournament based on tonight's game against Utah... USC win: 30% USC loss: 18%
Best chance to win or tie for SEC men's basketball regular season conference title: Auburn: 55% Florida 31% Tennessee: 24% Kentucky: 17%
Kansas-West Virginia on Monday is a high-leverage game for the Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks will have a 46% chance to win the title outright with a win, 21% with a loss. The Mountaineers will have a 19% shot at the outright title with a win, 5% with a loss.